Analysing Aged Care Star Ratings for Q2 FY22-23

Analysis
MOA-Benchmarking
Author

Filip Reierson

Published

May 15, 2023

Introduction

The service level data for aged care star ratings is now available (Australian Government, Department of Health and Aged Care 2023), but in its unprocessed form it is hard to derive insights from it. In this post I will aim to visualise the star ratings for Q2 FY22-23 using sensible and interesting graphical representations. I will also perform some statistical analysis. However, in general I will leave interpretation to the reader as my priority is to transform the service level star rating data into a more useful format for analysis in a timely manner.

The number of services given each star rating in each category is summarised in Table 1. The distribution of overall star ratings based from this data extract differs slightly from what has been published by Anika Wells MP (2023), but this can be attributed to changes made to ratings between the date of publication of the press release and when the service level data was made available.

Table 1: Number of services that were given each star rating within each category.
rating Overall Residents’ experience Compliance Staffing Quality measures
★★★★★ 54 50 1373 240 579
★★★★ 967 737 476 211 612
★★★ 1358 1494 610 578 1017
★★ 115 234 59 934 161
6 5 6 574 163

Some star ratings are missing in the dataset. Based on the Star Ratings Provider Manual (Australian Government, Department of Health and Aged Care 2022) there are a number of reasons that a star rating may not be available such as: the service has not operated for two reporting quarters of the National Aged Care Mandatory Quality Indicator Program; the service has recently gone through a transfer in ownership; the rating for quality measures or staffing is under review by the department; unavailability of data. Furthermore, the overall star rating can only be determined when all other star ratings are available for that service. The number of star ratings missing in each category is shown in Table 2. The patterns of missingness are shown in Table 3. We can confirm from this table that the overall star rating is only ever available when all other star ratings are also available.

Table 2: The number of star ratings unavailable within each category.
Unavailable star ratings
Overall 140
Residents’ experience 120
Compliance 116
Staffing 103
Quality measures 108
Table 3: Number of services with each combination of missing star ratings.
Missing star rating for Count
Overall, Residents’ experience, Compliance, Staffing, Quality measures 97
Overall, Compliance 12
Overall, Residents’ experience 12
Overall, Quality measures 7
Overall, Residents’ experience, Compliance 6
Overall, Residents’ experience, Staffing, Quality measures 3
Overall, Residents’ experience, Staffing 2
Overall, Compliance, Staffing, Quality measures 1

Overview

While we can determine some results from the table of counts, a more intuitive view is given by a column chart, such as in Figure 1. For overall, residents’ experience, and quality measures, the most common rating is three stars. On the other hand, for staffing the most common rating is just two stars, while for compliance it is five stars. The proportion of services that received each star rating within each category and the mean star rating within each category, along with an estimated 95% confidence interval, is shown in Figure 2. We observe a high average star rating for compliance, but a low average star rating for staffing among services.

Figure 1: The number of services that received each star rating within each category.

The 95% estimated confidence interval, within each star rating category, was calculated as \overline{x} \pm 1.96s / \sqrt{n}, where \overline x is the sample mean, s is the sample standard deviation, and n is the sample size.

Figure 2: The proportion of services that received each star rating within each category and the mean star rating along with an estimated 95% confidence interval.

Star rating by size of service

Next we consider the effect of the size of an aged care service on its star ratings. The number of services of each size is shown in Table 4. Figure 3 shows, stratified by service size, the proportion of services that received each star rating within each category and the mean star rating, along with an estimated 95% confidence interval.

Table 4: The number of small (<60 clients), medium (61-100 clients), and large (>100 clients) aged care services with an available overall star rating.
Service size Count
Small 1120
Medium 845
Large 535
Figure 3: The proportion of services that received each star rating within each category stratified by service size and the mean star rating along with an estimated 95% confidence interval.

Star rating by organisation type

The number of services of each organisation type is shown in Table 5. Stratified by organisation type, Figure 4 shows, the proportion of services that received each star rating within each category and the mean star rating, along with an estimated 95% confidence interval.

Table 5: The number of aged care services, of each organisation type, with an available overall star rating.
Organisation type Count
For profit 844
Government 215
Not for profit 1441
Figure 4: The proportion of services that received each star rating within each category stratified by service size and the mean star rating along with an estimated 95% confidence interval.

Star rating by geography

We consider the modified Monash categories MM1-7 along with groupings of these by MM1, MM2, and MM3-7, and the Australian states and territories. The number of services in each group and how these relate to each other are shown in the alluvial chart in Figure 5.

Figure 5: An alluvial chart showing how the geography categories are related.

To get a deeper understanding of the geographical regions in question, you can interact with the map in Figure 6.

Figure 6: An interactive map showing a simplified approximate version of the geographical boundaries of interest.
Figure 7: The proportion of services that received each star rating within each category stratified by geographical regions and the mean star rating along with an estimated 95% confidence interval.

Star rating means

The mean of each star rating category stratified by various groupings are available in Table 6.

Table 6: The mean of each star rating category stratified by various groupings.
Overall Residents' experience Compliance Staffing Quality measures N
Home size
Small 3.54 3.38 4.31 2.85 3.61 1177
Medium 3.28 3.15 4.23 2.19 3.43 884
Large 3.19 3.06 4.16 2.05 3.41 579
Organisation type
Not for profit 3.35 3.27 4.18 2.32 3.54 1521
For profit 3.28 3.09 4.31 2.26 3.39 901
Government 3.96 3.58 4.46 4.09 3.77 218
State
NSW 3.32 3.28 4.08 2.30 3.55 835
VIC 3.49 3.20 4.40 2.68 3.63 748
QLD 3.44 3.24 4.43 2.44 3.45 467
WA 3.21 3.21 4.20 2.31 2.96 250
SA 3.32 3.26 4.02 2.43 3.55 230
ACT 3.19 2.89 4.15 2.33 3.74 27
TAS 3.43 3.23 4.36 2.46 3.79 71
NT 3.00 2.75 3.92 2.67 3.17 12
Modified Monash Model
MM1 3.33 3.12 4.29 2.35 3.49 1653
MM2 3.40 3.27 4.25 2.43 3.49 210
MM3 3.29 3.32 4.04 2.24 3.52 229
MM4 3.38 3.38 4.19 2.61 3.39 190
MM5 3.67 3.64 4.25 2.97 3.70 318
MM6 3.21 3.29 3.97 2.67 3.27 30
MM7 3.40 3.30 4.20 3.40 3.60 10
Modified Monash Model grouped
Metropolitan (MM1) 3.33 3.12 4.29 2.35 3.49 1653
Regional centres (MM2) 3.40 3.27 4.25 2.43 3.49 210
Rural and remote (MM3-7) 3.47 3.47 4.16 2.67 3.55 777

Unrounded overall star rating

I calculated the unrounded overall star ratings according to the Star Ratings Provider Manual (Australian Government, Department of Health and Aged Care 2022). The overall star rating is usually calculated according to the formula, \begin{align*}
\text{Overall star rating} &= 0.33\times \text{Resident's experience star rating}\\
&\quad +0.30\times \text{Compliance star rating} \\
&\quad +0.22\times \text{Staffing star rating} \\
&\quad +0.15\times \text{Quality measures star rating}.
\end{align*} However, when the compliance star rating is two or lower, then the overall star rating can be no greater than the compliance rating. The unrounded star rating I use here simply stops after this step, whereas the official star ratings are rounded to the nearest whole number.

The distribution of unrounded overall star ratings, as calculated above, is shown in Figure 8. The densities at one stars were exclusively the result of the compliance rule. On the other hand, only some of the two stars were the result of the compliance rule, as shown in Figure 9.

Figure 8: The distribution of unrounded overall star ratings.
Figure 9: The overall star rating before and after the compliance rule is executed for all services that received a final star rating of one or two.

It can be useful to look at the summary statistics for the unrounded overall star rating to understand differences between subgroups in the dataset. Table 7 presents a comprehensive view of unrounded overall star ratings, grouped by various strata, including a density plot and box plot for each.

Table 7: Summary statistics, a density plot, and a boxplot for the unrounded overall star rating stratified by various groupings.
Min Q1 Median Q3 Max Mean SD N Density Boxplot
Home size
Small 1.0 3.2 3.6 3.9 5.0 3.6 0.6 1120
Medium 1.0 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.7 3.3 0.5 845
Large 1.0 2.9 3.2 3.5 4.7 3.2 0.5 535
Organisation type
Not for profit 1.0 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.8 3.3 0.5 1441
For profit 1.0 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.7 3.3 0.5 844
Government 2.0 3.7 4.0 4.4 5.0 4.0 0.6 215
State
NSW 1.0 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.8 3.3 0.5 786
VIC 2.0 3.1 3.5 3.9 5.0 3.5 0.6 704
QLD 1.0 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.8 3.4 0.5 454
WA 1.8 2.9 3.2 3.6 4.5 3.2 0.5 243
SA 1.0 3.0 3.4 3.6 4.7 3.3 0.5 208
ACT 2.0 3.1 3.3 3.5 4.3 3.2 0.5 27
TAS 2.0 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.3 3.5 0.6 70
NT 2.0 2.5 2.7 3.2 4.0 2.9 0.7 8
Modified Monash Model
MM1 1.0 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.7 3.3 0.5 1555
MM2 2.0 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.7 3.4 0.6 202
MM3 1.0 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.7 3.3 0.5 212
MM4 1.0 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.8 3.4 0.6 184
MM5 1.0 3.3 3.7 4.1 5.0 3.7 0.7 309
MM6 2.0 2.6 3.3 3.9 4.4 3.2 0.8 28
MM7 2.0 3.2 3.5 4.1 4.4 3.5 0.7 10
Modified Monash Model grouped
Metropolitan (MM1) 1.0 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.7 3.3 0.5 1555
Regional centres (MM2) 2.0 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.7 3.4 0.6 202
Rural and remote (MM3-7) 1.0 3.1 3.5 3.9 5.0 3.5 0.6 743

Star rating by provider

The following table contains the average star rating in each category grouped by providers. Each service’s individual star ratings can be viewed by expanding the provider rows. The unrounded column corresponds to the unrounded overall star rating as described earlier.

References

Anika Wells MP. 2023. “Star Ratings System Working to Improve Aged Care.”
Australian Government, Department of Health and Aged Care. 2022. “Star Ratings Provider Manual.” https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/star-ratings-provider-manual?language=en.
———. 2023. “Star Ratings Quarterly Data Extract – 2022-23 Financial Year – Quarter 2.”